Every year, or at least every year since 2012, we’ve taken some time after the season was over to look at the past 162 games through the lens of the players that played them (and the management that was in charge of them). Last year, the Exit Interview series spent less time digging into splits and finding numerical oddities and more time reflecting on the player and their season. It was a style that seemed to work so we’re going to bring it back again this year. The legendary cardinalsgifs is back to bring us excellent series art, so it’s all downhill after you see that!
Player: Steven Matz
Stats: 1-2, 12 G, 44.1 IP, 49 H, 7 HR, 15 BB, 33 K, 5.08 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.444 WHIP, -0.2 bWAR
Statcast: 7.9% barrel, 44.3% sweet spot, 115.8 max exit velocity, .352 wOBA, .334 xwOBA, 17.4 K%, 7.9 BB%
Grade: D
It’s fairly safe to say that the Matz experiment has been an abject disaster. It helps that the contract isn’t onerous, $44 million over 4 years, but the Cards really haven’t even gotten that sort of production out of him. Two of the three years he’s been injured to the point that he’s pitched less than 50 innings and even in his “healthy” year he only pitched 105 innings, in part because he was split between the rotation and the bullpen. Last year, he pitched in March/April as a starter and (save for one start when he returned) a reliever in September.
It didn’t escape anyone’s notice that his reliever time was much stronger. It was just 12 innings, of course, but the ERA was 2.25, the OPS against was .663, the K/BB rate went up to 3.00. The results were notably better in 2023 as a reliever as well, which would seem to indicate a full-time change should be made. He’s not a reliever you would pay $12 million (his salary in 2025) for, but you are paying him that whether he starts, relieves, or sits on the injured list so you might as well try it out.
What’s in store for 2025: Given his reasonable contract, his lack of no-trade clause, and his good relief numbers, I think there’s a better than even chance Matz is dealt at some point this winter. If he stays in St. Louis, he might have the inside track on the last spot in the rotation but if there’s another pitcher, such as Michael McGreevy or Adam Kloffenstein, that management would like to try out in the big leagues, Matz would quickly get the boot back to the bullpen and see if he could continue his successes there.
