Every year, or at least every year since 2012, we’ve taken some time after the season was over to look at the past 162 games through the lens of the players that played them (and the management that was in charge of them). Last year, the Exit Interview series spent less time digging into splits and finding numerical oddities and more time reflecting on the player and their season. It was a style that seemed to work so we’re going to bring it back again this year. The legendary cardinalsgifs is back to bring us excellent series art, so it’s all downhill after you see that!
Player: Nolan Arenado
Stats: 152 G, 635 PA, 70 R, 23 2B, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS, .272/.325/.394, 2.5 bWAR
Statcast: 3.2% barrel, 35.9% sweet spot, 107.5 max exit velocity, .314 wOBA, .297 xwOBA, 14.5 K%, 6.9 BB%
Grade: C
It’s hard to even estimate how many times fans said some variation of “if we only had the good Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt” this season. When a team is struggling to reach expectations, players that are 1) making most of the money and 2) are All-Star/Hall of Fame level players for their careers are going to get a lot of the focus. Arenado didn’t dip nearly as far down as Goldy, of course, but he wasn’t the dynamic figure that we expected. His second half felt stronger, though the numbers were necessarily that different. (The glove did get back to normal as the season went on, though.) He didn’t strike out a lot, though some of that turned into weak contact, double plays, and the like. He was a force ahead in the count (.937 OPS) and much less of one behind (.553 OPS). Some of that is to be expected, but probably not all of that gap can be explained by normal baseball. He’s not getting the lift on the ball that he did in 2021 and 2022, a significant reason the power hasn’t been there.
One of the raps on Arenado has tended to be that he gets so worked up about the game, so deep into his own head, that his passion can tear him apart. It was refreshing to see that start to change later in the year. Arenado admitted his flaws and also started to take a mentoring role with some of the younger hitters coming up, including Lars Nootbaar and Masyn Winn. Maybe that helped him as well, as he hit .288 from August on with five of his 16 homers. While the last couple of years haven’t been exactly what people expect when the trade with Colorado was made, it feels like Arenado is still a net positive for the club.
What’s in store for 2025: That’s quite the question. No matter if you believe the Cardinals are trying to tear everything down or just slightly modifying the major league squad, you have to figure there’s a possibility Arenado is moved this winter. I don’t think it’s a very good possibility, nor is it likely to be in the club’s best interest. It feels unlikely there would be much of a prospect haul for him, especially if the Cards are unwilling to pay much money toward the contract, and there’s something to be said for keeping a potential Hall of Famer on your roster. If Arenado wants to go, he’ll go I expect, but I have a feeling he’s willing to wait it out, especially if this looks like a short refresh rather than a long rebuild. My guess would be he’ll be manning the hot corner wearing the birds on the bat come the start of the next season.
