Matt Holliday needs to step up for the St. Louis Cardinals

by Wes Keene on July 19, 2014

As the Cards begin their “second half”, they have many unanswered questions: Who will make up the rotation? Can Adam Wainwright stay healthy and as effective as he was in the first half? Will Shelby Miller ever improve? Can Allen Craig even step into the shadow of his 2013 performance? It’s a dizzying array of uncertainty that Cards brass has to mostly ignore and let work itself out.

If we had to write the synopsis of the 2013 Cardinals today, based on the first half, the story would be the maddeningly inconsistent offense. They have gotten better, but it feels like the bats are hanging by a thread. While everyone expected Allen Craig to regress toward the mean in 2014, many also expected a better performance from Matt Holliday in the first half.

It’s interesting that so many in sports media assume Holliday will improve in the second half. If I were Rush Limbaugh, I’d put together a media montage featuring all the bubble-headed bleach blondes who’ve been repeating this “fact”, clearly without researching it themselves. While it was true last year, it is definitely not always the case. Here’s his first half vs second half for 2013:

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	SH
1st Half	83	82	353	310	64	83	15	1	13	47	3	1	37	51	.268	.351	.448	.800	139	22	0
2nd Half	58	58	249	210	39	73	16	0	9	47	3	0	32	35	.348	.442	.552	.994	116	9	0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 7/17/2014.

A stark difference, to say the least. He was a different hitter after the break last year. At .348, he can pretty much carry the team. But let’s take a trip down our foggy memory lane. First stop, 2012:

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF
1st Half	83	82	368	319	56	101	21	1	14	56	4	2	42	64	.317	.397	.520	.917	166	9	3	0	4
2nd Half	74	72	320	280	39	76	15	1	13	46	0	2	33	68	.271	.359	.471	.831	132	7	6	0	1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 7/17/2014.

He actually got noticeably worse in the second half of 2012. In pretty much every offensive category, he was down. Interestingly, he was nearly identical on homeruns. On to 2011:

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF
1st Half	67	64	280	241	45	78	19	0	14	49	0	1	33	41	.324	.418	.577	.995	139	10	6	0	0
2nd Half	57	55	236	205	38	54	17	0	8	26	2	0	27	52	.263	.352	.463	.815	95	11	2	0	2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 7/17/2014.

Again, he dips significantly in the second half. Homerun production is cut nearly in half this time. The second half of 2011 was a truly unremarkable performance for Holliday. In 2010, his performance fit the popular narrative:

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF
1st Half	86	84	367	327	52	98	25	1	16	51	6	1	36	53	.300	.373	.529	.902	173	6	3	0	1
2nd Half	72	72	308	269	43	88	20	0	12	52	3	4	33	40	.327	.409	.535	.944	144	7	5	0	1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 7/17/2014.

Ah! There it is. He experiences a spike in his second half performance that moves him from great, to elite. On to 2009:

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF
1st Half	85	84	365	315	42	87	19	1	8	43	10	3	43	56	.276	.373	.419	.792	132	5	6	0	1
2nd Half	71	70	305	266	52	95	20	2	16	66	4	4	29	45	.357	.420	.628	1.047	167	8	4	0	6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/18/2014.

Last stop, 2008:

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF
1st Half	79	79	356	309	52	104	21	2	14	51	13	1	42	59	.337	.421	.553	.975	171	6	4	0	1
2nd Half	60	60	267	230	55	69	17	0	11	37	15	1	32	45	.300	.393	.517	.911	119	3	4	0	1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/18/2014.

So, there is some merit to the thinking that Matt gets better in the second half, but he’s done it in only three of the last six years. It’s hardly a safe bet. There are some other reasons to believe he could significantly pick up the pace again this year, however. Look at his performance over the last few weeks of this season:

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SF
2014 Totals	93	93	400	339	50	90	24	6	45	2	1	49	58	.265	.373	.389	.762	132	15	10	2
Last 7 days	3	3	12	10	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	1	3	.300	.417	.800	1.217	8	1	1	0
Last 14 days	10	10	39	32	10	9	3	1	5	0	0	5	6	.281	.410	.469	.879	15	3	2	0
Last 28 days	22	22	89	78	15	22	7	1	10	0	0	9	12	.282	.371	.410	.781	32	8	2	0
Last 365days	151	151	649	549	89	163	40	15	92	5	1	81	93	.297	.399	.452	.851	248	24	15	4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 7/17/2014.

Here’s a guy who is at least .020 over his .265 season average over the past few weeks. That comprises well over 100 AB, so it’s not that small of a sample, either. He’s a career .309 hitter, and every year he proves people wrong. He starts slow, and about half the time he improves in the second half. The annual alarms going off about Matt’s age-related decline are as much a part of rooting for the Cardinals as declaring their season over sometime in May. He has the tools to put it together, and he has every year.

Having said all of that, it’s probably more important this year than others. For whatever reason, the Cards are just having trouble at the plate this year. Certainly that could not be said about the teams over any of the past few years. Matt could afford to slump when Pujols, or Beltran were around. This 2014 team just has not completely clicked yet, and a blockbuster season for Matt Holliday would cover a multitude of sins.

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