Steamer Predictions Part Two: Matt Adams

Most of you probably know what a steamer prediction is, but for those of you that don’t, it’s a prediction system that forecasts a player’s performance in the upcoming season based on past performance and minor league history.

I thought I’d look at the steamer predictions for a few of our players. I started with Kolten Wong and now I’m doing Matt Adams. I’m really curious about this one as I’m expecting them to underestimate Adams, particularly when it comes to his home run totals. After all, this is a guy who’s continually working to improve himself. From what I heard, he bought a curveball machine so he could work on hitting on his own time. That sounds like a guy who’s going to improve.

But again, I have to say I’m nowhere near as much an expert as the folks at Steamer are. I’m just a hopeful fan with no scouting background whatsoever. Anyways, here we go again.

2014 Stats

Games At Bats Home Runs Batting Average On Base Percentage Slugging Percentage
142 527 15 .288 .321 .457

 

Steamer Predictions for 2015

Games At Bats Home Runs Batting Average On Base Percentage Slugging Percentage
120 472 19 .270 .314 .455

 

As I thought, they’re predicting a low home run total for Adams. Heck, they’re not even predicting him to crack twenty. I suspect he’ll do that easily. I figured for 25 to 30. This could be another wild expectation on my part though.

Another thing that caught my eye was the at bats. They’re not even predicting him to crack 500. This is actually something I’m worried about since the acquisition of Mark Reynolds. I’m afraid Mike will overuse him at Adams expense given his blind faith in veterans in the past. I really hope steamer is wrong on this one, and that Adams easily cracks 500 AB’s.

Steamer predicts a regression in batting average, down to .270. Given his weakness versus lefties, I can see their reasoning, but my mind goes back to that curveball machine. Add in the fact that he hit for good average at all of his long term stops in the minors, and I’m taking the over, going with .280 to .290.

They’re predicting slightly better plate discipline, with an OBP .044 points higher than his average, as opposed to his OBP that was .033 points higher than his average in 2014. I’ll go along with that, and hope he does even better than predicted.

Save for the home runs, their predictions seem pretty reasonable, if a bit cautious. We’ll see who’s right, the experts or the hopeful fan.

As always, thanks for reading.

Next Post:

Previous Post:

 

Archives

Subscribe to The Conclave via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 9,975 other subscribers