In case you haven’t noticed, Allen Craig’s ground ball rate has jumped rather drastically (55% so far this year, compared to 45% last year according to Fangraphs). While we’re still operating in relative small sample size land, it’s still a rather alarming jump, so much so that I wanted to get some historical context. With that goal I grabbed all of the seasons of greater than 250 plate appearances since 2007( rather arbitrary cut-offs, but good enough for illustration purposes), and looked for seasons with at least a 10% increase in ground ball rate. I found only 26 such instances in the sample, of which 4 of them are this season. The following table has the full list
| Name | Season1 | Season2 | GB1 | GB2 | wOBA1 | wOBA2 | PA1 | PA2 | s2-s1 wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Craig | 2013 | 2014 | 45 | 55 | 0.363 | 0.305 | 563 | 307 | -0.058 |
| Andruw Jones | 2009 | 2010 | 34.4 | 44.4 | 0.337 | 0.362 | 331 | 328 | 0.025 |
| Carlos Guillen | 2009 | 2010 | 36.3 | 49.8 | 0.333 | 0.327 | 322 | 275 | -0.006 |
| Carlos Pena | 2009 | 2010 | 29 | 44.9 | 0.377 | 0.325 | 570 | 582 | -0.052 |
| Carlos Pena | 2012 | 2013 | 37.2 | 49.7 | 0.309 | 0.298 | 600 | 328 | -0.011 |
| Chipper Jones | 2010 | 2011 | 38.1 | 49.3 | 0.356 | 0.348 | 381 | 512 | -0.008 |
| Cody Ross | 2009 | 2010 | 33 | 45.6 | 0.342 | 0.322 | 604 | 569 | -0.02 |
| David Eckstein | 2007 | 2008 | 40.7 | 51.4 | 0.33 | 0.314 | 484 | 376 | -0.016 |
| David Murphy | 2010 | 2011 | 44.2 | 54.2 | 0.354 | 0.32 | 471 | 440 | -0.034 |
| Domonic Brown | 2013 | 2014 | 42.4 | 54.1 | 0.351 | 0.263 | 540 | 276 | -0.088 |
| Eric Hinske | 2010 | 2011 | 33 | 45.5 | 0.342 | 0.315 | 320 | 264 | -0.027 |
| Felix Pie | 2009 | 2010 | 40.8 | 51.1 | 0.331 | 0.314 | 281 | 308 | -0.017 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 2009 | 2010 | 38.6 | 51 | 0.407 | 0.369 | 652 | 619 | -0.038 |
| Howie Kendrick | 2013 | 2014 | 51.3 | 66 | 0.336 | 0.321 | 513 | 314 | -0.015 |
| Ian Kinsler | 2009 | 2010 | 30.1 | 40.1 | 0.351 | 0.355 | 640 | 460 | 0.004 |
| John Mayberry | 2011 | 2012 | 41.8 | 51.8 | 0.368 | 0.303 | 296 | 479 | -0.065 |
| Julio Lugo | 2007 | 2008 | 46.4 | 59.5 | 0.286 | 0.315 | 630 | 307 | 0.029 |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff | 2010 | 2011 | 42.9 | 53.9 | 0.296 | 0.287 | 586 | 257 | -0.009 |
| Luis Castillo | 2009 | 2010 | 58.6 | 70.4 | 0.334 | 0.284 | 580 | 299 | -0.05 |
| Manny Ramirez | 2009 | 2010 | 32.7 | 43 | 0.398 | 0.383 | 431 | 320 | -0.015 |
| Marlon Byrd | 2009 | 2010 | 40.5 | 52.2 | 0.346 | 0.343 | 599 | 630 | -0.003 |
| Michael Morse | 2011 | 2012 | 44 | 55.3 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 575 | 430 | -0.05 |
| Placido Polanco | 2011 | 2012 | 42.4 | 55.6 | 0.303 | 0.279 | 523 | 328 | -0.024 |
| Reed Johnson | 2011 | 2012 | 43.4 | 56.7 | 0.355 | 0.322 | 266 | 288 | -0.033 |
| Robinson Cano | 2013 | 2014 | 44.3 | 54.8 | 0.384 | 0.366 | 681 | 302 | -0.018 |
| Ryan Howard | 2007 | 2008 | 31.5 | 41.5 | 0.397 | 0.368 | 648 | 700 | -0.029 |
As you can see only 3 players in the sample actually had a higher wOBA in the second season than the first. With that in mind let’s be the pessimist for a moment and have his current ground ball rate hypothetically continue through the season. How did these players that had drastic increases in ground ball rate hit in season 3? the following table summarizes the results for those players that had at least 250 PAs in year 3.
| Name | GB1 | GB2 | GB3 | wOBA1 | wOBA2 | wOBA3 | PA1 | PA2 | PA3 | S2-S1 WOBA | s3-s2WOBA | s3-s1 wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Howard | 31.5 | 41.5 | 36.2 | 0.397 | 0.368 | 0.392 | 648 | 700 | 703 | -0.029 | 0.024 | -0.005 |
| David Murphy | 44.2 | 54.2 | 43.4 | 0.354 | 0.32 | 0.369 | 471 | 440 | 521 | -0.034 | 0.049 | 0.015 |
| Ian Kinsler | 30.1 | 40.1 | 35.3 | 0.351 | 0.355 | 0.364 | 640 | 460 | 723 | 0.004 | 0.009 | 0.013 |
| Chipper Jones | 38.1 | 49.3 | 46 | 0.356 | 0.348 | 0.36 | 381 | 512 | 448 | -0.008 | 0.012 | 0.004 |
| Carlos Pena | 29 | 44.9 | 37.3 | 0.377 | 0.325 | 0.356 | 570 | 582 | 606 | -0.052 | 0.031 | -0.021 |
| Julio Lugo | 46.4 | 59.5 | 40.5 | 0.286 | 0.315 | 0.335 | 630 | 307 | 293 | 0.029 | 0.02 | 0.049 |
| Cody Ross | 33 | 45.6 | 34 | 0.342 | 0.322 | 0.321 | 604 | 569 | 461 | -0.02 | -0.001 | -0.021 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 38.6 | 51 | 50.9 | 0.407 | 0.369 | 0.317 | 652 | 619 | 385 | -0.038 | -0.052 | -0.09 |
| Marlon Byrd | 40.5 | 52.2 | 50.1 | 0.346 | 0.343 | 0.317 | 599 | 630 | 482 | -0.003 | -0.026 | -0.029 |
| John Mayberry | 41.8 | 51.8 | 42.8 | 0.368 | 0.303 | 0.298 | 296 | 479 | 384 | -0.065 | -0.005 | -0.07 |
| David Eckstein | 40.7 | 51.4 | 46.1 | 0.33 | 0.314 | 0.296 | 484 | 376 | 568 | -0.016 | -0.018 | -0.034 |
| Michael Morse | 44 | 55.3 | 44.7 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 0.286 | 575 | 430 | 337 | -0.05 | -0.054 | -0.104 |
| Placido Polanco | 42.4 | 55.6 | 48.3 | 0.303 | 0.279 | 0.279 | 523 | 328 | 416 | -0.024 | 0 | -0.024 |
This news is at least somewhat promising. It’s not unheard of for a player to have a season’s jump in ground ball rate and “bounce back” the following year. In fact most of the changes from year 1 to year 3 would fall under “standard aging”.
That makes me feel a little better but I still want Craig platooning first and RF with adams and Taveras. Also I want all of the shoulders fixed