Happy Draft Week for all that follow! And now thanks to the Washington Nationals, you can find the nearest circular filing cabinet to dispose of any and all prep work.
In the blink of an eye, the first picks of the 2025 Draft have become that much more interesting for the Cardinals and everyone else in the top five. The Nats seemingly made the right call to fire long-time baseball executive Mike Rizzo but with extremely odd timing this close to making the first pick. In what many are billing as a Kade vs Ethan showdown at the top, what happens now with Washington’s selection potentially makes it a free-for-all behind the Rockies.
Obviously, it is too early to tell what will happen in Colorado, but the smart money is on another Holliday hitting bombs in the thin air. Regardless of who gets picked number one overall, the Angels holding the second pick really means Holliday and Anderson will both be long gone before St. Louis gets a shot.
If there was ever a time for a caveat, however, look back at where JJ Wetherholt was mocked in the weeks and months leading up to last year’s Draft. It would be a miracle if either of the top two rated players fell to number five but with the Nats starting from scratch, don’t be shocked if a couple of surprises land just like last year.
From now until the actual Draft begins on July 13th, that’s the last you will see here about the wishful thinking picks. Instead of hopes and prayers, the Cardinals need actual home runs to continue the momentum of taking JJ with no time to waste. There will not be another selection in the top 10 next summer no matter what happens at the trade deadline and beyond for the Birds on the Bat so cutting a deal honestly makes zero sense.
The writing is on the wall that this year’s class isn’t as deep as 2024 or even how 2026 is shaping up a year out. And if St. Louis was picking where they were originally slotted in the high teens, a cost-savings for later makes total sense. But the lottery is called just that for a reason, and the Cards must swing for the fences. Okay, that’s enough of the puns and time to get to business. You stopped by for some actual knowledge so time to start spilling.
In an almost eerily similar way, this year’s Draft lead-up could almost be mistaken for last summer if you change out the names and leave the positions needed. Down under the Arch, the last couple series have proven how important it is to be get strike outs. That’s the very reason why everyone was drooling over the chance to add historic college strike out rates and also why neither of the top two arms fell to the Cardinals at number 7.
Fast-forward 12 months and the exact same dilemma faces the fading St. Louis roster. Gone are the days of adding ground-ball specialists and hoping the defense is up to the task. Strikeouts are the ultimate deal breaker, and at the top of the prospect list are a pair of southpaws that would pencil in right at the top of the organization’s needs. Jamie Arnold might just be the JJ of the 2025 Draft given his place atop many boards going into the season.
Arnold dominated for Florida State a campaign ago and has been mocked into the Top 2-3 just about every time out so maybe it is a case of prospect fatigue or the fact that the Seminoles didn’t meet expectations. Either way the lefty with a low-slot delivery (yes, Chris Sale comparisons will be aplenty) has the highest floor in the draft and as a 21-year-old will be expected to move quickly in an organization that desperately needs starting pitchers.
Where Arnold killed it with consistency, it is the other name that has gotten the deserved attention after mowing down the SEC. Liam Doyle took full advantage of the transfer portal in college and made stops first at Coastal Carolina and then at Mississippi before landing at Tennessee. He throws very hard and backs it up with an intensity (similar to Lance Lynn) that is sure to get his teammates fired up and fans to follow his progress. He also will be a fast mover due to age and bullpen make-up which makes the Angels or Mariners (#3 pick) prime candidates to not wait and see who else could benefit. Lefties that can touch 100 will always have a place, and that’s why he is the biggest wild card in the Draft.
There is a possibility that all three college southpaws and Matt’s younger son are off the board by the time the Cardinals come to the plate (sorry, not sorry) with all eyes curious how the new regime handles the opportunity to make the splash St. Louis desires.
